First look at the price trend of the national waste yellow paper in 2019
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information Looking back on 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper has shown a downward trend. In the first half of 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper continued to rise, mainly due to the natural growth of labor and other costs, the expected optimistic mainstream market mentality, and the tightening of solid waste import policy, which led to a reduction of nearly 50% in the amount of imported waste paper. . Among them, affected by the May 2 import and export inspection and the 30-day suspension of CCIC certification, the average monthly price of national waste yellow paper in June rose to 3043/ton, the highest in the year. In the second half of 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper fell from the high level in the year, mainly due to the decline in the number of new export orders under the trade friction between China and the United States, the exit of the speculative atmosphere in the finished paper market, the urgent need for downstream compression of finished paper, and the urgent need for paper mills to destock. And other factors. Among them, due to the continuous increase in inventory pressure on paper mills, the average monthly price of national waste yellow paper fell to 2007/ton in December, the lowest for the whole year. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the curtain of the price trend of the national waste yellow paper in 2019 was officially opened. At present, the environment in which the national waste yellow paper market is located has the following points of greatest concern. 1. Sino-US trade disputes. As far as the development trend of Sino-US trade frictions in 2019 is concerned, there may be two stages of stalemate, aggravation and easing, and suspension. If the trade friction between China and the United States is moderated and suspended in 2019, it will undoubtedly make the packaging paper industry chain out of operational pressure. Regaining the rising expectations, the price of national waste yellow paper will return to high level, and may even hit the previous high. However, Xiao Bian believes that the probability of Sino-US trade friction stalemate and intensify in 2019 is the biggest, so Xiaobian uses this as a background to predict the price of 2019. 2. Reform of the import management system for solid waste. The reform of the solid waste import management system was officially established in April 2017. In July 2017, the Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection sent a letter to the WTO indicating that the quantity and types of solid waste imports will be gradually reduced. Since August 2017, the reform of the import management system for solid waste has continued to advance. In 2018, a new import license approval system was introduced. On March 1, 2018, the new standard for import waste paper with a miscellaneous rate of no more than 0.5% was implemented. On June 24, 2018, the State Council promulgated the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Strengthening Ecological Environment Protection and Resolutely Fighting Pollution Prevention and Control", and proposed to "enhance the prevention and control of solid waste pollution." It is a total ban on the entry of foreign garbage, cracking down on smuggling, drastically reducing the types and quantities of solid waste imports, and striving to achieve zero import of solid waste by the end of 2020. As of press time, in 2019, the amount of waste paper import approval has been publicized in three batches. According to the comparison of the first three batches, in the list of the first three batches of paper mills, a single paper mill or base has only obtained one approval opportunity, that is, the approval of waste paper import quota in 2019. It may be changed to a paper mill in the first quarter. 3. Market trading is in a recovery trend. Obviously, the Spring Festival blocks market trading. After the Spring Festival, market trading will inevitably resume slowly. Then, the recovery of trading may bring about an increase in prices. 4. The willingness of mainstream paper mills will try to cash. In terms of finished paper sales, the trend of waste paper prices is still maintained by the mainstream paper mills. In line with the recovery of the post-holiday atmosphere, mainstream paper mills may try to price. 5. New capacity is put into production. Before the Spring Festival, the raw material reserve work before the new capacity of Shandong Bohui Paper was launched, which once triggered the upward trend of the price of scrap yellow paper. Then, in the later period, we will focus on the second-phase production plan of Bohui Paper in May-June, and we also need to pay attention to the production dynamics of Chongqing Xiaolong's new production capacity. 6. Repair of oversold mood in the finished paper market. Then in the fourth quarter of 2018, the purchase interest of the secondary plant was seriously lower than the normal level, and the price of the finished paper market was oversold. If there is a certain replenishment behavior in the secondary plant, the price of finished paper will likely rebound and drive the price of waste paper to rebound. It is predicted by the above factors that the price of national waste yellow paper in the first half of 2019 may show a downward trend, mainly because the speculation in the market will gradually heat up after the Spring Festival, and the price of national waste yellow paper will fluctuate. Chong Gao. In the second half of the year, the price of national waste yellow paper will fluctuate and fall. As confirmed by the top of the technology, the market's bearish mentality will be highly unified. The speculative operation of the national waste yellow sheet paper market will be fully exited. Imported waste paper pulp, imported semi-finished paper, imported finished paper In the context of an increase in the number, the price of national waste yellow paper will fall sharply and sharply. 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